5 days ago
Inside Ukraine's mission to expose Russia's submarine weakness
'This is a historic event,' Vladimir Putin declared on July 24 as he unveiled Russia's newest nuclear submarine, the Knyaz Pozharsky.
Squinting in the sun in front of the puffed-out chests of dozens of its crew, he said the stealth vessel, soon to join Russia's Northern Fleet, would 'strengthen the security of the fatherland' and act as a symbol of a 'modern, powerful navy'.
But 10 days later, Ukrainian state hackers stole a trove of secret documents exposing 'critical' limitations of the state-of-the-art submarine and published them online.
The highly classified files detailed its combat systems, technical intricacies, survivability measures, crew rosters, engineering reports and a log showing daily combat duties.
The intelligence leak has the potential to put the whole Borei-class strategic ballistic missile submarine fleet – a cornerstone of Moscow's nuclear triad, which also underscores the country's strategic position in the Arctic – at risk.
But it also served as a potent reminder of another front of the war – the cyber battlefield that Russia has long dominated, but on which Ukraine has been gaining ground with increasing skill.
'The information obtained by the intelligence officers allows us to identify the features and technical limitations of not only the Knyaz Pozharsky, but also other submarines of project 955A, which are critically important for supporting the imperial myth of the aggressor state of Russia,' the HUR, Ukraine's military intelligence agency, said.
Maxim Starchak, an expert in Russian nuclear policy, said he believed most of the information was likely already known by US intelligence, which is constantly monitoring Russian submarines.
But more important, he said, is the blaring psychological threat the leak sent through the corridors of the Kremlin.
'Nuclear weapons are a main symbol of Russia's greatness,' Mr Starchak told The Telegraph. If Ukrainian intelligence can uncover weak points in its sea-based nuclear capabilities, then it directly undermines the strength that Moscow tries to project.
'This is a serious blow to the Russian defence ministry and its nuclear capabilities as it cannot guarantee the secrecy of their plans, missions, and operations,' he said.
While the significance of the stolen data is still under debate, the ability of Ukrainian hackers to get their hands on it is a different story.
'This is a dangerous situation for Moscow. The Kremlin will try to find the people responsible and punish them strictly, demanding that the defence ministry solve the issue of cybersecurity,' Mr Starchak added.
That issue is not likely to be fixed soon.
Analysts say that Ukrainian hackers – who are carrying out increasingly advanced operations – are relentlessly trying to breach Russia's most critical defence and military infrastructure, or are already lurking inside.
It is not clear whether HUR carried out the operation alone or whether it involved independent hacking groups.
'Ukraine has shown remarkable cyber capabilities on both the offensive and defensive fronts. Many Ukrainian hackers are highly motivated and proactive, even without state oversight,' David Kirichenko, an analyst who specialises in cyber warfare, told The Telegraph.
Two years ago, in a world first, Kyiv openly called on hackers around the globe to help it wage a crowdsourced cyber war, giving birth to the so-called Ukraine IT army, which uses the collective computing power of volunteers to disrupt and sow chaos inside Russian systems.
The vigilante collective, which is believed to have thousands in its ranks, has proved skilled at overwhelming the cyber defences of Russia's government, media and financial institutions and sowing chaos. A report in March by Russian cybersecurity firm F6 said the attacks by the IT army had risen sharply over the past year.
However, despite the initial fanfare, analysts have quietly voiced that the prowess of the IT army has been somewhat overstated.
HUR still tended to operate its cyber efforts independently, Mr Kirichenko said, but emphasised that it was steadily increasing its co-ordination with civilian hackers to go after Russian targets. Moscow, meanwhile, relies on a more centralised campaign fought by state-sponsored groups with rigid structures.
At the end of July, two pro-Ukrainian groups claimed a massive cyber attack on Russia's flagship airline that destroyed 7,000 Aeroflot servers, paralysed operations at Moscow's airports and caused nationwide disruptions.
The hacktivist groups, Silent Crow and Cyber Partisans, had been lurking in Aeroflot's systems for over a year, gathering intelligence and mapping out vulnerabilities. Experts suggested it was likely HUR had some degree of involvement.
On Saturday, Silent Crow announced that it was beginning to release medical records of the airline's employees, including pilots.
'These documents show who exactly ensures the operation of the aircraft that supports military aggression against Ukraine,' the group said. 'Now their secrets are no longer protected.'
The Kremlin said the sophisticated cyber attack was 'worrying' and lawmakers described it as a wake-up call for Russia.
'The Russian network is really vulnerable'
Dr Lukasz Olejnik, a cybersecurity expert and visiting fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, said the attack was another indication that the 'Russian network is really vulnerable'.
'Some key Russian infrastructure entities are very likely to be well mapped by Ukraine's services,' he told The Telegraph, adding there was 'no doubt' it was a sign of much more to come.
Yuliana Shemetovets, the co-ordinator of Cyber Partisans, the Belarusian group that took part in the recent Aeroflot cyber attack, called it 'the price of war'.
She told The Telegraph she was 'unsurprised' to learn of HUR stealing data on Knyaz Pozharsky. Russia, she said, had become increasingly fearful and protective of its digital systems, 'but they are still so vulnerable and so many pro-Ukrainian groups are collaborating to get inside'.
It is still an asymmetrical battle as Russia retains significant upper-hand in cyber warfare. Yet, Ms Shemetovets suggested that might miss the point.
At the crux of all their hacking efforts, Ms Shemetovets said there is one goal: 'One country cannot kill the citizens of another without consequences. We are showing Russians who are responsible for this war and we are bringing it home.'
